$AQST Q1 2026 Results - The Cleanest Post CRL Setup in Biotech History! Aquestiv [5:09-10:13]
is starting to look real. The phase one readout had no drug-related adverse events, no systemic absorption, which is what you want. You want to just local and they identified a TSLP signal. It's a biomarker. So for anyone who doesn't follow immunology, TSLP is the same target that tests fire validated in asthma. So they're now moving towards an atopic dermatitis study design. And the Adrenalverse platform is being valued at basically zero, me and biotech scanner have been saying this for a while. Any positive AQST 108 data over the next year is peer upside that nobody's paying for. No one's even looking that far. People were talking about this company going bankrupt. They're not. People were talking about this company raising more money, diluting. Number five, here's why I think it looks like not. The financials are cleaning up fast. So this is probably the best, not the best part, but to me, this was very reassuring. Revenue was up 66% year-over-year to $14.4 million. Net loss came in at 8.1 million versus 22.9 million a year ago. The adjusted EBITDA loss was 1.7 million versus 17.6 million. They're getting close to operational break even on the manufacturing and royalty base alone. Now they will have to fund the two studies, but those are cheap, easy, relatively cheap, and easy studies. Look, let's take the best of what this situation's giving us. We actually had a bit of a break on spending, which makes sense. They did make some layoffs. Cash sits at 110 million as of March 31st with the new debt and the strategic funding they had from RTW. They're expecting 150 million on the balance sheet into a potential approval. That's a real launch purchase. So what does this all mean? I think the setup into the call is about as clean as a post-CRL biotech can get. You have a reaffirmed quarter three submission. You have a refined balance sheet. You have a 50% sales force expansion. Essentially for free, you have a free option on a QST 108 and you have a February 2027, which is the first in class, by the way, and you have a February 2027 potential approval that the company is now openly modeling capital around. The risks are real, but manageable. The subject to completion of required studies language on the resubmission is the standard hedge class two review default versus class one accelerated review is the next real variable. I think the next catalyst we have, I think we'll expect a run-up. We used to be range bound from like 350 to 5. I think now we'll be range bound from 425 to 5 maybe 6. The next catalyst will be that accelerated review if they actually get that. So the next catalyst is going to be submitting the NDA. And then if they get the accelerated review, I know it's crazy to watch the AI hype like find a way to get yourself into that world if you believe in it because it'll make you feel less bad about being range bound here. But this is to me, it's a no-brainer. I think upon approval, we're going to see this. The market cap should be approaching two billion dollars and market cap upon approval based on what I'm saying on other comps. And so that would make this a 4x from here because right now it's 700 million, no, 517 million dollar market cap. So we're going to look at, yeah, let's say 450 to 9, anywhere from 12 to $15 stock, which is what I've been saying since the beginning. So it's easy money, I think. It might be borrowing money for the next quarter, but find your spots, find your dips, find panics. When retail panics, these sectors get hit the hardest, these biotech small cap, $15 million dollar market cap. The market's still pricing in meaningful approval risk. I think they're pricing in like cash runway issues. The macro does matter, rates matter, but listen, listen to the call tomorrow, find your spots. I think there's not too many
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