Nickel Enters a New Era as Indonesia Tightens Supply and Prices Surge [5:03-10:05]

will try you know for the near term anyways to try and keep it in that 20, 21,000 dollar ton range just to discourage me again our project break those numbers a lot of other projects need you know need prices another couple thousand dollars a ton higher you know the Western Australian guys to restart really need prices closer to over 22,000 a ton to make the math work so I think you'll see them trying you know verbally manage prices in that range for the time being and then again both we'll we'll see what happens from here but that again that's the pivot is is is is Indonesia's really moving to the end and that's what's you know I get sentiment wise you know I think people are starting to go yeah Indonesia's series about this they are going to be managing prices and you know it's it's going to be good for those nickel producers going forward so ultimately it doesn't go you know I've lost a chance over the year but the kind of season I'll say of all of this and therefore it's predictable at different times of the year what what the behavior is going to look like with this management around price do you think Indonesia then has the ability to kind of kind of flatline they're kind of the kind of flooding of a product into the market whichever product into the market and if so does it have kind of real time control and in that sense or again as a some degree of seasonality to it there's there's there's some degree of seasonality to it but there is also it's not real time control but it is you know the the one big change in the various you know again half a dozen measures they did was changing quarters from three years to one year right so you know they do have these one in your windows to to basically dial up and dial down supply I'm going forward you know and then they can they can add as it goes as as if they need to but I don't think they'll take away once they've they've given a quota and so you know that's that's going to be that that's the key tool and then they have quite a bit of flexibility so I think that's where they're probably set it lower to make sure the price moves and then if we find the prices moving too quickly they might you know add a little here add a little there again to kind of drive it into this one either twenty one thousand dollar tongue range right and so if I look at then the kind of I guess relevancy of you know the the LME right we yeah been on a bit of a journey with LME and and and entries over the past you know three years or so and how meaningful will LME be going forwards you know because obviously there's lots of fun and games to be hard hard with that does this new regime I said we're reduce their relevance uh it the relevance that already really been reduced just because it nickels a little unique relative to say copper and aluminum because the bulk of product like you know 80% of nickel global nickel production is not LME deliverable it's either NPI or H you know uh MHP which is not LME deliverable at the current time but because that is a benchmark price that's traded you know it and sheffi you know those prices are still still valid and and will still still you know still still still be meaningful going forward I think the big shift you know we we had talked a couple years ago but the fact that we didn't have a way to get all these intermediates to whatever market needed it we now have lots of refining capacity in China and refining capacity in Indonesia and so you know that the the market can move intermediate product into whatever end the market it needs and so you know the the days of massive disconnects between flat you know sort of the NPI price and the nickel price you know they're all trading into very narrow ranges reflecting the incremental cost of getting that into the final final product form so so I think I think going forward here now I think the relationship sheet of should hold up you know generally hold up pretty well okay so people should expect this as a kind of sustained sustained tightening of physical not a kind of short squeeze but that's not what's happening here no no this isn't you know this is this is this is the beginning of the new normal in terms of the nickel market if right okay and in terms of the kind of the self self but you mentioned self for them we talked about it a little bit last week and it was the pricing is got up that's going to impact the kind of proton price from from the HPL HPL boys and girls and does that let's clear you're going to shift into the marginal cost higher and is that what's the what's the impact that you're going to have in terms of supply into the market from from HPL is it just it's a margin issue rather than supply issue it's a little bit of supply as well as margin you know I think I think some of the HPL users are are looking at trimming supply given the amount of you know sulfur because again those plants you don't want to turn off and have to restart them again so I think they're managing the production level to the amount of sulfur that's available and and you know that's going to be something that'll play out over the next you know over the next month or two is if the strength of hormones doesn't open you know that it's about a quarter of global supply and 75% of what went into Indonesia you know we'll see what that what happens on on that you know that's again enough that's an upside risk you know in terms of that