Florida’s New Congressional Maps Could Decide the Midterms [0:00-5:00]

Ron DeSantis just dropped a brand-new Florida Congressional map at the last minute and he could rush it through before Democrats can even challenge. His plan leaves Democrats with four congressional districts while Republicans get 24 and that gives Florida Republicans four more districts than they have right now. And if it works, they could save the Republican House majority, but if it backfires, Florida Republicans could lose seats they've held for years. And with the Synthesis team drawing these maps behind closed doors, right, there is a specific legal strategy behind this timing. There's let's say two doctrines at play here. The first is something called the Purcell principle, a legal idea that keeps courts from overturning election laws too close to an election because doing so would confuse voters. Right, so if DeSantis can get the maps passed and then run out the clock, the courts might decide to just not intervene at all before the midterms. And then second is the apex doctrine, which says that if Democrats challenge the maps, they have to depose all the lower-level staffers in DeSantis's camp before they can touch the people actually calling the shots. You've got some analysts saying that's exactly how DeSantis helped flip the House back in 2022. And remember, because these maps have been drawn in secret, Democrats won't even know who to depose or what documents to request. So the strategy here is clear, run out the clock and take the House by default. But again, this strategy, it comes with real risk for Republicans. When you redraw a state's map to break up Democratic districts, you're spreading those voters across more districts. Now, I can do a lot, I can create more competitive seats, but it can also weaken the safe Republican ones, because now those previously safe districts, they have more Democratic voters in them. And then, of course, the wildcard here is the independence. Across the country, at least right now, independence are increasingly leaning left. So if DeSantis eats spreads too many Democrats and left leaning independence into Republican-held districts, so you could end up handing Democrats opportunities they didn't previously have. And this isn't like some theory. Trump's approval, it is already cratering under the weight of the Iran War and rising gas prices. And Republicans, they privately know that this could backfire. You had one Republican strategy just putting it pretty bluntly saying, in an environment like this, where independence are breaking hard against us, our people aren't showing up and Democrats are pissed, we could wind up losing a net number of seats. Our message to Florida Republicans is efforound and find out. If they go down the road of a DeSantis dummy-mander, the Florida Republicans are going to find themselves in the same situation as Texas Republicans, who are on the run right now. So a lot of play could be a huge win, but it could also backfire. But also, here's the thing. Even if Florida backfires, Democrats still have to actually win these races. And right now, it doesn't seem like they can even agree on what to talk about, or because there are basically three competing messaging lanes inside of the Democratic Party heading into the midterms. Lane 1, the economy. The clearest and most evidence-backed approach, polls show only 29% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy. People are feeling it everywhere. Gas, groceries, insurance, housing. For the midterms, give me what's most important to you. The economy. I just feel like we haven't had any reprieve. I really feel that Americans need breathing room, and we don't have that right now. It's really, really difficult for anybody to make it. That's how I feel. I mean, if I feel these pressures as a business person, I can only imagine what the middle-class and lower-middle-class feel like. And this is the lane that Sherrod Brown's running for, and his Ohio Senate comeback. Affordability in the working class. And again, it's the lane that has the strongest evidence behind it, because every poll shows that the economy is the number one issue that voters care about. And you have lane two, impeachment. Some Democrats want to talk openly about impeaching Trump again if they win the House, and honestly, even Trump knows it's coming. You got to win the midterms, because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be, I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. And while there's a lot of love and energy of holding people accountable, you also have some saying there might be an issue. Arguing that we're living under a twice impeached, twice acquitted, and still twice-elected president. You bet people are giving it two prior impeachments didn't lead to a removal and to a lot of voters leading with impeachment as a midterm pitch can come across as the wrong priority, focused on Trump instead of real people's lives. And then you have lane three, the 25th Amendment. And this is in part Representative Jamie Raskin's push, and it's actually picked up some real momentum. 40% of House Democrats have actually signed on with 84 new supporters just last week. And if you stumble across this video, you don't know that 25th Amendment allows Congress to set up a special commission to determine whether the president is mentally fit to serve. And you've got some Democrats arguing that this approach actually needs voters where they are right now, because public concern about Trump's mental health, it is real. You even have Republicans like Tucker Carlson and former Trump staff saying things like this out loud that something is off. And while you've got people like Elizabeth Warren saying that the 25th is worth looking at, she's also been clear that it can't just be the Democrats. And so of course the bigger problem is that the 25th Amendment requires the vice president and the cabinet to lead the charge. JD Vans and Trump's hand-picked cabinet, they're not going to do that. They have entire televised meetings where they're like, Mr. President, you're so awesome, sir. It's even if Democrats sign on and large your numbers, the mechanism doesn't really work without the people that Trump appointed willingly turning on him. So with all that, and here I'll say this is my opinion. I think the choice is clear, but also not completely black and white. I'm personally in support of candidates that say, hey, we have to care about accountability and, you know, in addition to impeachment, we're gonna actually have investigations and trials. Love that. But first and foremost, it has to be about what you can actually offer and do for the American people. And with that, the data is pretty clear. Voters are asking about groceries. They're asking about rent. They're asking about whether their kids can afford college, whether they could retire, whether they can take a sick day without losing their job. They're asking why we are in this war of choice that Trump unilaterally put us into is making everything, including our gas more expensive. And again, that's not to say that impeachment should be off the table, that it's crazy that people are talking about the 25th Amendment. We all have eyes and ears. We're seeing this guy. But we also have to make peace with the reality, and it's not the only reason it went down that way. But in 2024, democracy was on the belt. And more people decided that Trump's words about making things more